Bayesian Network for Supply Chain Disruption Analysis

Problem statement

The database supply_disruption_history.csv contains 1000 records when supply chains were disrupted due to different events. The variables are: 'Event', the event causing the supply chain disruption 0: Natural disaster 1: Political unrest 2: Pandemic 3: Financing problem 'Supply Disruption', the level of supply chain disruption 0: Low 1: Medium 2: High 3: Severe 4: Catastrophic 'Diversify Suppliers', showing how well the business was prepared by diversifying suppliers 0: None 1: Insufficient 2: Sufficient 'Damage', the amount of damage, including loss of profit, reputational damage, loss of market share 0: Low 1: Medium 2: High 3: Severe 4: Catastrophic 'Response', shows how well the business acted responding to the disruption. This includes root cause analysis, managing relationships and resolution of complaints from customers, communication with stake holders 0: Failure 1: Insufficient 2: Sufficient Given the observed events, construct a BN assessing risk of supply chain disruption including standard types of event nodes, like T rigger, Risk Event, Control, Consequence, Mitigator. CourseNana.COM

1. Learn the BN structure: Use 2 methods of learning the BN structure: PC and HillClimbSearch Describe your problem in a prompt to chatGPT and discuss the architacture with the bot. Y ou can disagree with the recommendations, refine the question by changing the prompt. Submit the dialogue Based on all obtained suggestions and learning from the data define the structure of the BN. Submit the list o f variables and the list o f edges
2. Use the data to estimate the prior conditional probabilities tables for all nodes
3. Use the created Bayesian Network to: Estimate the likelihood of supply chain disruptions: Given the event type 'Natural Disaster' find the probability of a supply chain disruption and different levels Assess the impact of supply chain disruptions of level 2 (High) for the same event: understand how high level supply chain disruptions can lead to damage, including loss of profit, reputational damage, and loss of market share Evaluate the effectiveness of diversifying suppliers for the same event: evaluate the impact of different levels of diversification of suppliers on the amount of damage experienced. Explain the observed results Understand the effectiveness of response: evaluate the impact of different levels of response on the amount of damage experienced. Explain the observations